Timberline Mountain

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Davis, WV

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Mainly dry weather is expected for much of the area through the rest of the holiday weekend with high pressure over the Great Lakes region. The exception will be for areas near and south of Interstate 70, where low pressure to our south will return low rain chances Sunday night and Monday. Much of the remainder of the upcoming week will be dry, with a warming trend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Made a few adjustments to the sky, temperature, and POP forecast for today based on the latest observations, satellite data, and near term model data for the early morning update.

Generally dry weather is expected again today with high pressure centered across the Great Lakes region. A southeast CONUS low pressure system will begin drifting northward today. Limited moisture and vorticity advection rotating around the low could result in a light shower across the higher terrain areas of West Virginia as the northern periphery of the low approaches that area.

Otherwise, increasing mid and high level clouds are expected through the day on the northern side of the low. Highs are expected to average around 5 degrees above seasonable levels.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will remain centered across the Great Lakes tonight, as he southeastern CONUS low becomes stacked as it stalls across the Carolinas. Additional moisture and vorticity advection rotating around the low could get close enough to the region to result in a few showers generally south of the PA/WV border. Reduced POPs from N-S overall, with the models continuing a more southern track of the low.

The low should begin an eastward drift on Memorial day, though additional moisture and vorticity advection rotating around it will result in low chances for light showers, mainly south of I 70. Limiting factors in any precip development include the more southern track of the low, dry air in place, and downsloping easterly wind. Elsewhere, the high to the north and the dry easterly flow should maintain dry weather across the area.

High pressure is progged to track eastward on Tuesday, and the low stalls across the eastern Carolinas/Mid Atlantic region. Areas again south of I 70 could see a slight shower or thunderstorm potential with limited moisture and vorticity advection rotating around the low.

Generally dry weather is expected Tuesday night with high pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes region though areas near the higher terrain areas of WV could see a shower or two with that area still in close proximity to the low.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low is progged to continue its slow eastward track off the coast Wednesday, though a few showers will be possible east of a LBE to MGW line before it exits. Otherwise, ridging is progged to build across the region from the Midwest. This ridge should persist across the Upper Ohio Valley region through at least Friday. Dry and warmer weather is expected through this period, with highs approaching the upper 80s.

Model ensembles indicate the ridge should retrograde westward Saturday, as a trough advances across the northeast CONUS. At this time, it appears moisture is limited with this trough, resulting in continued mainly dry weather.

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