|Dew Point:||27.9°F (-2.3°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.15" (1020.9 mb)|
Cloudy then Slight Chance Freezing RainLow: 29
Mostly CloudyHigh: 44 Low: 31
Light Rain LikelyHigh: 46 Low: 41
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 52 Low: 24
SunnyHigh: 35 Low: 22
A slight chance of freezing rain between midnight and 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Southeast wind around 5 mph.
A chance of rain after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 46. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain showers. Cloudy, with a low around 41. South wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Sunny, with a high near 35.
Mostly clear, with a low around 22.
... Dry conditions will continue before rain chances return with weekend low pressure. Strong winds expected on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 640pm update...no major changes to the overnight period. Increased the cloud cover a bit with the cirrus shield spreading across the region. Temperatures were updated with a blend of hires guidance.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather will continue as the aforementioned sfc high continues east across the region. A disturbance passing south of the forecast area early Friday should result in increased cloud coverage across southern zones...but precipitation chances are too low for mention in the forecast.
An upper low currently over the desert southwest will deepen as it tracks ENE across the Central CONUS and near the Great Lakes by Saturday night. Increasing moisture and shortwave support in SW flow aloft ahead of this feature will begin to increase rain chances early Saturday...expanding north over the course of the day. Garrett county MD could see a brief period of freezing rain Saturday morning until sfc temperatures rise.
Rain should overspread the area Saturday and Saturday night with the increasing moisture and shortwave support and as sfc low pressure develops and quickly tracks from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest region, pulling a warm front N across our area. Model progs indicate the best potential for heavy rain should stay just S of the area. Above seasonal average temperatures are expected with strong warm air advection in place.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models remain in fairly good agreement with overall pattern on Sunday...which looks to be an ideal setup for a significant wind even across the forecast area. Location/orientation of upper level features and surface low, U and V component anomalies, top analogs, and 99th percentile ensemble wind forecasts (relative to model climatology) all support a strong wind event as well. (For all locations...not just the higher elevations - based off a local studies) Maintained mention of this in the HWO being still 3 days out...but if models remain consistent...warning level winds would definitely be possible.
Weak ridging in zonal flow aloft should return dry weather for Monday and Tuesday before the pattern amplifies and another trough tracks SE across the region by midweek, returning precip chances to the forecast.