|Dew Point:||18.6°F (-7.4°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.97" (1014.8 mb)|
Mostly SunnyHigh: 50 Low: 33
Mostly Cloudy then Light Rain LikelyHigh: 49 Low: 39
Light RainHigh: 50 Low: 28
Chance Snow ShowersHigh: 29 Low: 25
Slight Chance Snow ShowersHigh: 39 Low: 26
Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. Southwest wind around 6 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Southwest wind around 6 mph.
Rain likely after noon. Mostly cloudy. High near 49, with temperatures falling to around 43 in the afternoon. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Rain likely before 10pm, then rain and snow likely between 10pm and midnight, then snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
A slight chance of snow showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
A slight chance of snow showers before 11am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.
... High pressure will support dry weather until the next area of low pressure brings rain later on Thursday through Friday...transitioning to snow by Saturday morning. Gusty winds can be expected later on Friday through Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 740 AM Update: GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows high clouds moving in from the SW associated with a quick moving, upper shortwave. Made slight adjustments in the forecast package to account for this. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.
Previous Discussion... Southwesterly flow will set up today as surface high pressure shifts eastward. Warm air advection along with ample sunshine will result in temperatures climbing to the upper 40s on average across the region.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Troughing across the central CONUS will amplify on Thursday, leading to deepening southerlies across the area. Temperatures will be fairly warm on Thursday (upper 40s to mid 50s). Rain chances increase from south to north through the afternoon/evening as isentropic ascent deepens north of a warm front rotating around the strengthening low centered over the SE CONUS.
Rain will overspread the region Thursday night as the aforementioned low tracks along the Appalachians and across the forecast area on Friday. Latest forecast amounts through Saturday range from 0.75 along the western fringes of the CWA and increasing to the east up to 1.25 to 1.5 over the ridges...with the heaviest/more moderate rain expected Thursday night. Precipitation looks to be more limited throughout the day on Friday as the dry slot moves over the area before picking up again by late afternoon and beginning to transition to snow as cold air advection ramps up on the backside of the low.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong cold air advection will continue Friday Night and Saturday...maintaining snow showers and gusty northwesterly winds. Accumulations will be minimal overall with the highest amounts in the ridges (2-3 inches on average). Amounts would need to be increased if models trend towards a setup that would result in higher snow ratios.
A shortwave ridge will then cease the showery activity later Saturday night before another shortwave brings raises precipitation chances Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.